Cancel Bear vs. ABC, week 4: ‘The Conners’ can survive their loss

Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2018-19 season, and how one of the season’s most-anticipated premieres fared against the renew/cancel index.

Show
Status
18-49 rating
Renew/Cancel Index

Splitting Up Together
🐻 🐻 🐻
0.90
0.30

The Rookie (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻
1.00
0.40

Speechless (F)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
0.47
0.07

Fresh Off the Boat (F)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
0.57
0.22

How to Get Away with Murder (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
0.78
0.18

A Million Little Things (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
0.88
0.28

Black-ish (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.00
0.40

Station 19 (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.07
0.47

American Housewife (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.08
0.48

Single Parents
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.08
0.48

The Good Doctor
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.18
0.58

The Goldbergs
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.28
0.68

The Kids Are Alright (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.40
0.80

Modern Family
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.43
0.83

Grey’s Anatomy (O)
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
1.67
1.07

The Conners
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
2.40
1.80

 

The long-awaited debut of “The Conners” may not have pulled in the same kind of premiere numbers that the “Roseanne” revival did, but it still made quite an impact.

The spin-off’s series premiere drew in a 2.4 rating among adults 18-49, which aside from making it the highest-rated series premiere of the season so far, was close to the ratings the “Roseanne” revival was pulling in when it ended its run.

Barring any catastrophic ratings declines in its future episodes, or the kind of unexpected behind-the-scenes drama that led to the “Roseanne” cancellation, the Bear safely considers it a likely bet for renewal. The Bear feels similarly about “The Kids Are Alright,” which drew in respectable numbers with its post-“Conners” premiere.

“The Rookie,” however, isn’t looking as good. The Nathan Fillion-led series garnered a 1.0 rating with its premiere, on par with how the short-lived “Kevin (Probably) Saves the World” did in the same time slot last year. Right now, the Bear is keeping it as a tossup, but will be keeping an eye on its ratings moving forward.

Key:

DSW
Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

🐻
sure bet to be canceled by May 2019

🐻 🐻
likely to be canceled by May 2019

🐻 🐻 🐻
tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
likely to be renewed by May 2019

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻
sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Read more: tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com

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